The Great AVG With Runners in Scoring Position Debate

There is a great ongoing discussion, or argument between baseball fans.  It is the ultimate question of whether or not batting average with runners in scoring position is a bogus statistic or not.  A question of whether or not the statistic of a baseball player stepping up to the plate, eyeing the pitcher, seeing the ball fly out of his hands, reading the pitch, swinging the bat in the proper location, hitting the ball in fair territory, and running safely to at least first base is a legitimate record to keep.  I do not disagree with the argument that batting average (AVG) is NOT the ultimate statistic that measures good hitting and on base percentage (OBP) is more indicative of a baseball player's value.  But that is a whole different topic that I'm sure I will comment on another day.  What we are talking about here is the documentation of getting a hit in a high pressure situation.

What does it take to get a hit with runners in scoring position?  It takes courage to swing at a small white sphere thrown at an incredibly high velocity from a man whose job it is to manipulate the speed and movement of the baseball.   When runners are in scoring position, there is no doubt that the pitcher is trying as hard as he can to make sure the batter does not hit the ball well.  In the same respect, a hitter is also trying his absolute best to connect the bat with the ball and drive it to an open spot on the field.  One can say that the pitcher and hitter are always trying their hardest, but everyone can agree that the stakes are much higher when there are men on base close to scoring a run.  The reason why AVG is a better indicator than OBP when runners are in scoring position is that usually a walk will not produce a run, while a hit will produce a run.  For instance with a runner on second, even a single will more often than not score the runner whereas a walk will not even move the runner to third.  Now, sometimes a hitter does not have the choice- the pitcher will not pitch them strikes- but this is not reflected on his AVG.  The AVG with runners in scoring position is an indicator of the likelihood the batter will produce runs with the swing of his bat.

However, if we decide that AVG with runners in scoring position is an important stat to keep, then there should be a stat kept on pitchers as well.  If the same at bat is documented by statisticians equally between pitchers and hitters, then the two statistics will be more comparable and thereby tell a more accurate story of an important situation.  

I'm not a huge fan of AVG being the ultimate stat that hitters are judged on, but it certainly does say something when a hitter can step up to the plate and produce in a high-pressure situation.  If enough of these at bats are documented, then there will be enough data to interpret, and perhaps some valuable information can be inferred about the hitter from the data.

LIVE

Life is better lived.

Today, I played ultimate frisbee.

Yes, sometimes people question whether it is a sport. Yes, ultimate frisbee was featured on Stuff White People like (http://stuffwhitepeoplelike.com/2008/09/23/110-frisbee-sports/). People think ultimate isn't a sport. At times when it lives up to most of its stereotypes it isn't. The same thing goes for other sports though when unathletic people go out and shoot hoops or throw a ball around. Whenever you get really athletic, competitive people together and give them a ball or disc and an objective with a few rules, sweet things happen. This is what I witnessed today at the Southwest regionals. On a cold, fall day teams from as far away as California gathered together to compete. Sick 80 yard throws, hucks, layout d's, fierce marks, and athleticism were on display for the small but rowdy crowd. Johnny Bravo played the Condors in the final. Seeing high level disc live is great. If you are in doubt check out this youtube video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kst2yrNJolY You are literally standing next to the players on the sideline and can hear everything. The excitement is contagious. Adrenaline starts pumping even when you aren't the one going for the disc and could never conceivably sprint the length of the field and sky a 6 and a half tall man for a score.

Incidentally, the Pakers were also playing during this time period. A random man I accosted to see if he knew the score acknowledged that he had TiVo-ed it to watch later. Although I love football and was heavily invested in winning my fantasy game today, I'm really glad I woke up to go to frisbee and see the athleticism live. I engaged with people more and was a witness to some sweet plays. When I got home I watched the highlights and caught up.

Today I witnessed some great live games while also winning my fantasy football game. The best of both worlds.

The NFL Network Needs to Evolve

I woke up this Sunday excited for a day full of football.  There are few things greater than waking on Sunday morning and slumping downstairs with sleep still crusted in bleary eyes, hair uncombed and unkempt, slippers on chilly toes, then channel flipping between two football games.  Today, however, I have only been able to watch one game at a time.  Now I understand that when the Broncos play in Colorado, no other games are aired to force people to watch the home team.  That's at least understandable.  They did the same thing in Minnesota for the Vikings.  But on top of that, for some reason, CBS decided to not air an early game.  I was forced to watch the Falcons-Bears game with was pretty awful until the final five minutes of the game.  Boring football games happen more often than one would think, but usually the sanctity of the sport is saved by flipping back and forth between two channels.

Before I move on to the meat of this article, here are a few reasons why channel flipping between two football games is better than watching one.

1.  You get to see twice as much football.

2.  If one game is really good, you can watch it.  If one game is bad, you don't have to watch it. 

3.  You get to see more fantasy players play and (hopefully) produce.

4.  You diminish the number of total commercials watched.

5.  There are usually about 25-35 seconds between each play in football, and each play usually lasts less than 10 seconds.  This means ideally you can watch most plays of both games if you are really skilled with the remote.

When there is only one game on network television, I think the NFL Network should step in and show an extra game each week.  Sit down with FOX, CBS, and the NFL and make something good happen for the football fans.  If people are paying extra money for the NFL Network, shouldn't they show more football games?  I know things are probably complicated with contracts and game rights, but it seems very possible for the NFL Network to show a game that is not being shown on the other stations, the game changing depending on the region.  For example, all other games are blacked out in Colorado during the Broncos game, except now that the NFL Network did some creative negotiating, there is another game on the tube if you pay your NFL Network fee.  How great would that be?  No longer would anyone who loves football be forced to watch only one game at a time for a small fee.  Never again would I have to channel switch between Planet Earth and a football game.  Neither program had quite the beauty or charm when sharing screen time with the other.  

Sports...opiate of the masses or just plain sweet...

In our home sweet home that is Milwaukee Street, we talk about three things: how we don't have jobs, politics, and sports. Of these three topics there is one that brings more joy to our lives than others: SPORTS! Thus this blog was created.

The baseball season is winding down. This is quite unfortunate as going to/watching baseball is the epitome of summer. I, for one, am quiet ready for some football. This is my first year playing fantasy football. Persistence paid off and I pressured, haggled, and conned my way into a keeper league. My extra x chromosome was a deterrent for some but my current #2 ranking certainly proves otherwise.

The beauty of sport is evidenced in the current football season. Some had already ceded the season to the Patriots. Dynasties and ACL's, however, succumb and the battle for victory becomes even more intriguing. The redskins, the bills...who knew? who thought?

Not only do the wins and losses provide excitement, but also the drama. The quarterback drama of the NFL has been more than comparable to daytime soap opera drama. Brett Favre, a god among men, retired. Then in Jordan-like fashion, Favre came back. Came back to throw 6 touchdowns in one game and drag the Jets out of the mire of the past decade. With the go-to QB's down with injury or horrible offensive lines, Phillip Rivers and other young QB's such as Favre's replacement Rodgers can rise above and shine with glimmering dreams of multi-million dollar endorsement deals. Yet, it is only week 5, who knows what shall come.

This my friends is the beauty of sport. Sport may be the opiate of the people (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/8525) but who doesn't need an opiate of some sort right now?

Milwaukee St. Season Opener

I'm watching the Phillies battle the Dodgers as we speak, and all I have to say about the baseball playoffs is this: the four teams left are all excellent ball clubs and all four have a legitimate shot at winning the World Series.  Is this a cop out?  Would you rather prefer me spout off six or seven completely illegitimate reasons as to why one team will win over the other three?  I certainly have heard enough talk about the baseball playoffs, most of it meaningless.

Baseball playoffs is about watching and enjoying the games, not talking about it.  Why?  Baseball is a game of fractions of inches.  A ball hit a fraction of an inch differently can be the difference between a pop-out to the infield and a home run.  A pitch released a millisecond early or late can be the difference between a ball and a strike.  The only way to truly interpret baseball statistics is to look at long-term trends and analyze large data sets.  Even the most detailed analysis, however, cannot predict short term results.  It cannot be done with baseball.  CANNOT BE DONE.  The sample size of the playoffs is far too small for any accurate analysis.  Thus, stop the talk.  Stop the predictions.  Picking a team to win the World Series takes no skill whatsoever.  I recommend simply watching the rest of the baseball playoffs for the intense, high-stakes, spectacle that it truly is.  If you want a prediction, ask your niece which team has the coolest looking uniforms.  She has the same chance at being correct as the talkers on ESPN.